Auston Matthews set an extraordinary benchmark last season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, scoring 69 goals to capture his third Rocket Richard Trophy in four years. This season, however, his offensive numbers have dipped noticeably; Matthews has tallied just 29 goals through 59 games.
NHL insider Mike Kelly appeared on NHL’s “Coast to Coast” on Amazon Prime on Thursday and provided his theory for Matthews’ scoring decline.
The analyst believes the Maple Leafs captain might be dealing with fatigue or his early-season injury not being completely healed.
“Mid-range, right around the hashmarks, he had 22 goals last year,” Kelly said. “He only has five this year, from an area he usually scores a ton from. His shot volume isn’t down much, his shot quality isn’t down much … .
“I wonder if maybe some fatigue (from the) 4-Nations (Face-Off), or an injury he’s been dealing with is factoring into his mid-range shot not being as deadly.”
According to data cited by Kelly, Matthews’ average shot speed from the mid-range area has dropped. In Kelly’s eyes, that is evidence that Matthews might not be fully healthy.
Earlier in the season, Matthews traveled to Germany to visit a specialist but decided against undergoing surgery as it wasn’t deemed necessary.
Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving explained the trip was for a “routine checkup,” but concerns have lingered, especially with the playoffs approaching and Toronto alternating wins and losses in four of their last five games.
Toronto head coach Craig Berube has managed Matthews’ minutes carefully, allowing extra rest in hopes of keeping him fresh for the postseason and announcing load-management plans for his star forward ahead of the weekend.
Matthews, who narrowly avoided a serious injury Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks when Cutter Gauthier’s skate blade nearly struck his face, recorded an assist in Toronto’s 3–2 victory.
The captain has scored six goals in his past nine games, which certainly marks an uptick in production (0.66 goals per game) compared to his first 50 games of the season (0.46).
Toronto (45–25–4) continues its push atop the Atlantic Division, now sitting first and three points ahead of both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, each with 91 points and one fewer game played than the Maple Leafs.