TORONTO — Given the circumstances, the Toronto Blue Jays’ dismal off-season should come as no surprise.
They were never going to be a top destination for free agents, not after an 88-loss season, with franchise cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette pending free agents, a mediocre farm system unable to replenish an expiring core, and four American League East rivals on much better paths.
The only way to compensate for those issues is to overpay, and even that wasn’t going to work with the two free agents they went all out for, as no team was going to outbid the New York Mets for Juan Soto, and Corbin Burnes appeared set on, at the very least, a team with spring training in Arizona before ending up at home with the Diamondbacks.
Regardless, the Blue Jays took their shots, fell short, and, outside of that duo, have remained disciplined in their valuations, not even making an offer on Max Fried when the price soared past their comfort zone, and remaining involved in Teoscar Hernandez, but never to the point of elbowing out the competition.
In other words, they’ve remained rational in a competitive environment where some degree of irrationality is expected. And having many strikes against them isn’t exactly favourable to landing players.
It does, however, lend itself to making them this off-season’s most handy and effective stalking horse, as with some money to spend, roster holes to fill, and jobs on the line, they should have both the incentive and means to be in on everyone and everything.
As a result, the Blue Jays appear to have been viewed as a party guest who is a two at 10 p.m. and is about to become someone’s ten at 2 a.m.
“They act like they’re a bottom-feeder,” complained one agent.
“The Michael Phelps of silver medals,” remarked another.
“They’ve been like the Giants the last couple of winters,” said a third.
Harsh as it may be, fair or not, it is the Blue Jays’ perception to wear and persevere through, because there is still plenty of off-season business to be done, for them and others.
We’ll see how their fortunes change in the market, but their policy of controlled and selective aggression will undoubtedly continue, even with Andres Gimenez, Yimi Garcia, and Nick Sandlin the only roster additions thus far.
To that end, they’re keeping an eye on Anthony Santander, despite the fact that they’re unlikely to be the first team to sign the switch-hitting outfielder right now. They are still interested in Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, but they are thought to be on the outside looking in, and the same might be said for Tanner Scott. The Blue Jays are also thought to be actively working the trade market, which is where the focal point of their winter effort thus far – Gimenez – originated.
For the appropriate combination of players, they can still exceed the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $241 million, as they would have done if they had signed Soto or Burnes, and FanGraphs’ RosterResource currently forecasts their 2025 payroll at $228.5 million.
However, if they do not sign whoever their remaining top targets are, the Blue Jays are expected to fall short of the $241-million threshold, putting them in the bounce-back/value play market. Jorge Polanco, a switch-hitting infielder who recently had a bad year in Seattle, is one prospective candidate.
The clock is ticking on extension talks with Guerrero, who has stated that he will not consider a long-term agreement after the first full-squad practice of spring training.
Thursday’s deadline for exchanging salary arbitration numbers will serve as a leading sign, as if the parties are unable to avoid a hearing, it will not augur well for a long-term agreement.
During an appearance on the Spanish-language Abriendo El Podcast last month, Guerrero said that the Blue Jays offered him an offer of around $340 million this off-season, which “isn’t even close to what we are looking for.”
That offer is thought to have preceded Soto’s $765 million, 15-year contract with the Mets. The question now is how much influence that deal will have on future free-agent markets, just as Fernando Tatis’ $340-million, 14-year early career extension with the San Diego Padres in the spring of 2021 altered the dynamic and muddled previous attempts at a deal between the Blue Jays and Guerrero.
Regardless, after subjecting the four-time all-star to a meaningless hearing and losing last year, it’s difficult to picture the team failing to avoid arbitration with the slugger again.
A Guerrero extension is the Blue Jays’ greatest chance to extend their current competitive window, given the events of the off-season. There is some dispute regarding their strategy for this winter, and whether some of their outcomes would have been different if Guerrero had been locked up before free agency.
A more comprehensive reckoning will come once all of the industry’s upcoming actions have been finalised.
Until then, perhaps they can be inventive and find methods to rescue a brutally light off-season, one that relieves them of a situation that should not have been unexpected.