Our third-ranked Blue Jays prospect made his Major League debut on Wednesday night. It wasn’t particularly fruitful, as he went 0-4 with a strikeout, but it was memorable. His first big league at bat resulted in a deep fly ball that traveled 105 mph. It flew 397 feet, but Kaufman Stadium is 410 feet from center field, so it was caught on the track. His second at-bat resulted in a 91 mph liner off pitcher Alec Marsh’ shoulder, which went for an out but forced Marsh to leave the game. That is, Barger’s calling card of power was on full display yesterday night. Unfortunately, he demonstrated his lack of a clear defensive home when he converted a medium fly ball by Kyle Isbel into a triple.
The Jays’ 2018 sixth-round pick burst into the spotlight in 2021, when he switched from a high contact, low power approach to an all-or-nothing home run hack that resulted in 18 home runs in just 374 PA but also a roughly one-third strikeout rate. The tale of his last three years has been about finding a happy medium between those approaches. Beginning with an 18% swinging strike percentage in 2021, he reduced it to 12.7% in 2022, 10.3% last season, and only 8.0% (in the 83rd percentile for the International League) before being called up this season, all while increasing his hard hit rate from 38% in 2021 to 47% this year.
Barger’s swing is unorthodox, as evidenced by this footage of his flyout. As the pitch is delivered, he raises his front leg and spins till he has his back to the mound, then unwinds from the ground up to whip his bat through the zone. It does not appear to be a contact-friendly swing, but that has not been an issue during the last two years. He has the hand speed to catch up to strong fastballs, hitting 38 of 40 heaters at or over 95 mph within the zone during his time in Buffalo. He can also adjust to breaking and off-speed pitches, with in-zone contact percentages against sliders, curveballs, and changeups of 87%, 85%, and 84%, respectively, in 2023 and 2024.
His swing appears to be geared for power, which Barger possesses in abundance. Last season, he had a maximum exit velocity of 113.7 mph, tying him for 65th among 403 major leaguers who put at least 100 balls in play. He can also consistently create high exit velocities, as seen by his hard hit rate. He doesn’t get much loft, either, with an average launch angle of 9.4 degrees, which is in the 20th percentile in MLB. That’s a departure from 2021, when his 18.5-degree launch angle would have been in the top tenth in the league. The lack of lift is most likely a trade-off for toning down his swing in order to make more and more consistently solid contact over the years, and if so, it’s been a good one for him. However, it will be interesting to see what happens in the major leagues.
The plate discipline is solid, however his recent AAA results are inflated by the computerized strike zone that has been tested in the International League. Since the beginning of 2023, he has swung at 64.2% of pitches in the zone and 27.2% outside of it. Those numbers are both somewhat below average compared to qualified MLB hitters this season, implying that Barger is patient but not particularly discriminating.
Overall, Barger appears to be a promising offensive player in the majors. It remains to be seen whether top-level pitching can exploit his unconventional swing, but he’s demonstrated a propensity for getting it on the ball in the minors over the last few years, and his hand speed and plate discipline should allow him to get on at a reasonable rate. If he can do that, his power will show, and in the best-case scenario, he has the ability to produce as a lefty slugger in the vein of Joc Pederson. His defensive position remains unknown, with poor dirt actions and scenic outfield routes, but he’s a strong athlete with a great arm who should be able to find a useful spot somewhere along the defensive spectrum. The Jays’ 2B/3B/LF mix is currently crowded, with Ernie Clement, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, and Davis Schneider all producing so far this season, so whether he even keeps his roster spot in the short run remains to be seen, but he has a good chance of contributing in the medium and long term.
