The Mariners and Twins recently agreed to a transaction in which infielder Jorge Polanco was traded to Seattle in exchange for a four-player package. According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, the M’s inquired about a larger deal that would have included outfielder Max Kepler, but that specific line of communication proved fruitless.
Though the talks were unsuccessful, it appears that the Mariners are still interested in making another trade to change their outfield mix. Since last year, they’ve lost Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic, with the former signing with the Dodgers and the latter being dealt to Atlanta. The Mariners replaced those two by acquiring old friend Mitch Haniger from the Giants and Luke Raley from the Rays. On paper, the two would fit in the main outfield alongside Julio Rodriguez.
There would be some reasoning for adding to that group. Because of injuries and the abbreviated 2020 season, Haniger has only played more than 63 games in a season three times. He has played approximately 60 games in each of the last two years, missing time due to a right high ankle sprain, a left oblique strain, a right forearm fracture, and a low back strain. He’s generally been able to produce solid outcomes despite injuries, but 2023 was a problem. He hit.209/.266/.365 with a wRC+ of 73, his first season of poor offensive performance since his 2016 debut.
Giving Haniger plenty of time in the designated hitter role would be a logical concept in a vacuum, but with the M’s present roster structure, it is unlikely to be practical. They signed catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24 million contract last month, but he is expected to DH on a daily basis or close to it, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate most days. Although an injury could change things, Haniger is presently expected to play regularly in the outfield.
Raley’s 2023 performance was great overall, but it concluded on a low note. He batted.268/.357/.533 through the end of July, striking out in 29.8% of his plate appearances. From the beginning of August to the end of the season, his line was just.200/.270/.380, with a 36% strikeout percentage. The total work for the year was still significantly higher than average, at 130 wRC+, but the overall track record is limited. He will be 30 years old next year and has had one good MLB season, albeit one with some concerns.
The Mariners also have a number of depth outfielders in the mix, including Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, Zach DeLoach, and Jonatan Clase, but their interest in Kepler shows they might consider adding another player under the proper conditions. Cody Bellinger is still available on the free agent market, but it’s difficult to imagine the Mariners offering him a huge contract given their significant economic constraints this summer. Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, and Eddie Rosario are more realistic alternatives. Alec Burleson, Randy Arozarena, and Seth Brown are possible trade market candidates.
Jerry Dipoto, Seattle’s president of baseball operations, has stated that the 2024 club’s payroll will be greater than last year’s $140 million, but uncertainties about broadcast revenue may limit them to a modest rise. Roster Resource presently values them at $135 million, so Kepler’s $10 million contract would have increased their value to $145 million.
Perhaps the Twins were less willing to trade Kepler than they were with Polanco. While the latter was being squeezed out of a congested infield, Kepler may still play a significant part for the 2024 club. He enjoyed a rebound season at the plate last year, hitting 24 home runs and slashing.260/.332/.484 for a wRC+ of 124. In addition, he played above-average defense in right field.
He is expected to stay in that role in 2024, with Byron Buxton hopefully returning to center field. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach might join Kepler and Buxton, with Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin, and Bubba Thompson all in the mix.
Kepler has been a theoretical trade prospect since the Twins are eager to slash payroll, despite the fact that he makes $10 million and is an upcoming free agency. However, after the Polanco trade, the club’s spending commitments are reduced to around $118 million, according to Roster Resource. They are apparently planning to spend between $125 million and $140 million, so they don’t need to spend any more money unless they make a blockbuster deal, which may keep Kepler in Minnesota for the 2019 campaign.
