Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Max Domi to a one-year show-me deal.
This year, the Toronto Maple Leafs inked Max Domi to a four-year agreement after he “showed them.”
Except he didn’t do it the way everyone expected.
Max Domi struggled as the Leafs’ third-line centre for the majority of the season.
The Leafs only had the puck 47% of the time that Max Domi was on the ice. Despite winning his non-Matthews minutes, Domi had a 47% Expected Goals Rating while centering his own line.
Domi not only should have lost his minutes, but the minutes he did play were exceedingly sheltered, which reverberated throughout the lineup. With no “shut down” option on the third line, Keefe was forced to overplay his David Kampf-led fourth line.
Furthermore, Auston Matthews and John Tavares were forced to play in often unfavorable matchups since Keefe could only start Domi and Robertson in the offensive zone against poor competition. (All metrics from naturalstattrick.com).
The Toronto Maple Leafs did not sign Max Domi to play centre or on the third line.
To score just 52% of the goals (which is decent but not amazing), the Leafs had to deploy their Max Domi-centered third line for unusually sheltered minutes.
When Keefe moved Domi from centering the third line to Matthews’ wing, he went from a substitute player who needed to be sheltered to be effective to a franchise player.
The Leafs were winning 52% of Domi’s minutes before pairing him with Matthews, and then they were winning 62% of his minutes.
Domi was extremely productive alongside Robertson, averaging 2.9 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time. This is roughly first-line production. However, keep in mind that he had to be extremely protected in order to score so much, and even then, he was barely winning minutes.
Domi improved by nearly a point per hour with Matthews, scoring 3.77 points per 60 minutes, which is franchise-player level scoring and a higher pace than Connor McDavid has ever finished a season with (bearing in mind that this is a short sample size of only 200 minutes, little over 10 games). Regardless, it is still extremely good.
Even amazing are the figures Matthews compiled with Domi. He had a 2.75 P/60 rating when teamed with Marner last season. With Nylander, 3.11 P/60. But with Max Domi, it rises to an unbelievable 4.9 points per 60 minutes of ice time.
Auston Matthews has never produced greater results. Max Domi hasn’t put up better numbers. With Domi on line one, the Leafs overcome the most significant disadvantage of putting him in the lineup, which is that he needs to be completely isolated from excellent players and defensive situations in order to be productive.
With Matthews, Max Domi essentially becomes a franchise player, allowing the Leafs to move their other two franchise players to different lines and spread their roster. With Max Domi on the wing, the Leafs have a fantastic lineup.
Domi wasn’t signed to play centre, and I doubt the Leafs would have kept him if he hadn’t exploded when partnered with Matthews.
There is no chance. Max Domi plays on the Leafs’ third line. Assuming the Toronto Maple Leafs’ management are competent, he will begin the season as one of the team’s first-line wingers.
