One close call for Georgia, and ESPN has stopped faith in Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs.
The Georgia Bulldogs fled Lexington, Kentucky with their first SEC victory of the season, but ESPN’s FPI has significantly reduced their odds of winning the conference.
at Week 3, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the Kentucky Wildcats 13-12 at Lexington, winning their 42nd consecutive regular season game. Georgia delivered its poorest performance of the early season in the team’s SEC opener, dropping the Bulldogs from No. 1 in the AP poll to No. 2 behind the Texas Longhorns. It also prompted ESPN and their “football power index” to lose faith.
One week after losing 31-6 at home to South Carolina, Kentucky pushed Georgia to the edge. The Wildcats may have been a Mark Stoops cowardly punt in the fourth quarter away from defeating Georgia and ending the Dawgs’ regular-season domination. With so many quality teams on Georgia’s schedule, including road games against No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, and No. 5 Ole Miss, as well as a visit from No. 6 Tennessee, ESPN’s FPI significantly reduced Georgia’s chances of surviving the gauntlet.
Georgia had the third-best projected win total by FPI entering Week 3, but it has now plummeted to 18th in the USA. The Bulldogs have been given a 1.4% chance of winning the remaining games on their schedule, which is the 26th highest in the USA, down from seventh.
Georgia’s near-disastrous win over Kentucky had such a significant impact on ESPN’s FPI measures that it now predicts Georgia with a 7.8% probability of winning the SEC, ranking fifth behind Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee. None of those teams have faced another SEC opponent yet, and all are on Georgia’s schedule, so if Kirby Smart wants to use an ESPN analytic as a motivational tool, he has a very good option.
The Bulldogs performed terribly against Kentucky, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines, but it would be surprising if Smart’s squad finished fifth in the SEC.
