Let’s start with some mathematics: Five teams have won an NBA title since 2020, including the Los Angeles Lakers, who are already on their third coach in that time frame after hiring JJ Redick.
Frank Vogel won a title and then was sacked. Darvin Ham made it to the conference finals and then was sacked. Now Redick arrives as the hot-shot hire, with ludicrous comparisons to Pat Riley, Steve Kerr, and Eric Spoelstra. It’s almost too silly to laugh at.
Yes, we get it. Redick is a sharp person. He stares and speaks sharply. If you truly want to be this lazy, the Riley competition, as well as Kerr, fall into your lap in terms of headshots due to their identical playing profiles and broadcasting backgrounds.
This is not to argue that Redick won’t be a successful coach. Or, hell, an all-time fantastic one. However, if he is, he will be the exception, as are the individuals listed above. That is not the rule. Almost all NBA coaches have a close relationship with their rosters. They may receive a little more or less out of the group they have been assigned, but not much. The Lakers, who have hired and fired seven coaches since Phil Jackson’s departure in 2012, are not alone in believing they’ve found the exception.
To go down the history of coaches who were meant to make a huge difference only to perform similarly to their predecessors, absent a roster improvement, would take forever, but let’s look at a few recent examples.
The Hawks hired Quin Snyder to replace Nate McMillan — who, it should be noted, was largely the beneficiary of circumstance as Atlanta became healthy in 2021, just as he was replacing Lloyd Pierce — when it became clear that McMillan, with a few more years of experience, was unable to lift a Hawks roster that cannot defend and is overly reliant on stagnant individual creation.
Snyder came in with a goal to play faster and make more three-pointers, and the Hawks grew worse. Doc Rivers was hired to replace Adrian Gryphon in Milwaukee, and the Bucks’ record worsened. Rivers was also expected to improve on what the Sixers accomplished under Brett Brown, who never advanced past the second round. Two coaches later, the Sixers have yet to reach a conference final.
Chauncey Billups reportedly spoke the same point guard language as Damian Lillard, who currently plays for Rivers. Steve Nash had the same clout as the former player. Monty Williams was supposed to lead Detroit into the future, and he only lasted a year. In principle, Jason Kidd received the same deal as McMillan in Atlanta: a coach who happened to be on the sideline when the stars aligned. Kidd isn’t a better coach than Rick Carlisle. He just acquired Kyrie Irving as a model citizen and made significant additions at the trade deadline.
Again, if the team improves and the coach improves as well, do the maths. Joe Mazzulla was thought to be a horrible coach around this time last year. Did he suddenly become a championship winner because he learned when to call timeouts, or because he acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis?
Was Nick Nurse significantly better than Dwane Casey, who won Coach of the Year the summer he was dismissed, or did he simply run into Kawhi Leonard?
Is Chris Finch, the guy who put Rudy Gobert on the court in an obvious switch situation vs. Luka Doncic to lose a conference-final game, some kind of saviour, or did he happen to be in the seat when Gobert came in to ensure a top-flight defence and Anthony Edwards blossomed into a superstar?
Did the Knicks earn the No. 2 seed because they are “A Thibs team!” or because they signed Jalen Brunson? Before you respond, everyone knows that Tom Thibodeau is a good coach. That is not the point. The point is, he went 78-76 in two seasons before acquiring Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, Donte DiVincenzo, and, lastly, OG Anunoby. Thibodeau was once under fire for allegedly failing to understand how to coach a modern offence. It’s funny how Brunson changed that.
This is not meant to take anything away from Mazzulla, Nurse, Finch, Thibodeau, or any other NBA coach who isn’t Kerr, Spoelstra, or Gregg Popovic. It goes without saying that they are all extremely intelligent, accomplished, and skilled basketball players. It’s simply an undeniable fact that most of them, over time, will not provide a bottom-line outcome that deviates significantly from the realistic level of the team with which they are working.
By the way, the operative term there is “result”. Coaches influence players and teams in a variety of ways. It is all about relationships and conversation behind closed doors. In fact, Redick told Taylor Rooks in 2022 that he saw teaching “as a way to help.”
“I had so many people help me in my career,” Redick explained. “And not only head coaches; assistant coaches, player development personnel, and they hold a special place in my heart and life. And I hope to be one of those people eventually.”
What Redick is referring to, the relationships that are developed via coaching, and the impact one person can have on another, which is a very satisfying and fulfilling experience, is all well and good, but it is not what gets head coaches hired or dismissed. This isn’t high school, where the job description includes grooming young guys. Redick doesn’t receive a $1,500 coaching salary while also teaching third-period science.
No, he is apparently receiving more than $30 million over four years to accomplish one thing: deliver results. Wins and loses. That is it. So, let’s leave it right there: Last year, the Lakers won 47 games but fell in the first round. You might point to Kerr, who almost miraculously led the Warriors from 51 wins and a first-round loss in their final season under Mark Jackson to 67 wins and a title in his first season (with basically the same team), but that is a one-time exception.
Jackson was severely under-coaching the Warriors club. One could argue that there has never been a better time for a new basketball coach to step in and become an instant hero, with a complete offensive revamp waiting to be implemented.
Tell me, on a macro level, what Redick will do differently than Ham. And we’re not referring to Taurean Prince minutes. We’re talking about things that can truly impact the team’s fortunes. According to Redick, LeBron will play more off the ball, while Anthony Davis will be featured.
Wow. Stop the traffic. We have some groundbreaking ideas here! For years, the Lakers have attempted to play LeBron off the ball. It’s why they brought in Russell Westbrook, for crying out loud. Do you know what the secret to getting LeBron off the ball more is? Finding someone better than D’Angelo Russell to play ball. Not employing JJ Redick.
Coaches are not hired and fired at such a high rate because they vary greatly from one another. The press releases will talk about commanding respect in the locker room and all that crap, but in reality, coaches are the simplest variable to alter when things aren’t going as smoothly as you’d want.
You can’t just change players. There are contracts. There’s also a salary cap. However, coaches can always be replaced, and as long as this is the true, teams like the Lakers will continue to present their “activity” on the bench as meaningful development on the floor.
It’s the front-office equivalent of the guy who stands at half court dribbling the air out of the ball, impressing the less discerning fan with a variety of clever manoeuvres designed to distract you from the reality that, despite all of his circle spinning, he hasn’t moved any closer to the basket.
In all likelihood, the Lakers are no closer to winning a championship with Redick than they were with Ham. And they weren’t any closer to Ham than they were to Vogel, who won the entire thing thanks to a two-way roster with multiple playmakers, size, and defensive versatility.
So here’s what’s going to happen: The Lakers will either change their roster significantly enough to change their on-court fortunes, in which case Redick and the oh-so-smart people who hired him will be showered with praise, or they will not improve the roster, and LeBron and Davis will be less durable than they were last year, and Redick will no longer look so shiny.
At that moment, we’ll all start discussing about who will replace him.
