July 1, 2024

Caitlin Clark on one side, the NBA logo on the other side, a bunch of question marks in the background

How good would Caitlin Clark be if she competed in the NBA?
Caitlin Clark is a rising talent in the WNBA, but how would she do in the NBA?
Caitlin Clark on one side and the NBA emblem on the other, with a bunch of question marks in the backdrop.
Caitlin Clark has garnered a lot of love (and criticism) in her first month with the WNBA. As one of the most accomplished collegiate athletes of all time, many questioned if Clark’s abilities were good enough to enter the NBA. Ice Cube even offered her a $5 million deal to play ten games in his BIG 3 league, which consists largely of retired NBA players.

She is now a part of the Indiana Fever. However, owing to AI, we may investigate the potential of Clark playing in whatever league we choose. In this scenario, we simulated Clark’s career if she competed in both the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and the NBA.

Caitlin Clark’s statistics if she participated in the men’s NCAA tournament.
The first simulation involved Clark’s performance in men’s division one basketball. Despite her diminutive stature, AI expects Clark’s skill set will be more than adequate. She’d rely heavily on her vision and shooting to stay productive, but her weakness is her defensive skills. According to AI, Clark’s best-case scenario is to average between 10 and 15 points per season, considering two things. One, she’d continue to be a focal point on offence, and two, she’d gradually adjust to the roughness and speed of the game.

AI estimates that she’ll average 4 to 6 assists and 3 to 4 rebounds each game. It was a significant drop from her 31 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 8.9 assists at Iowa, but it was still respectable.

Could Caitlin Clark join the NBA?
Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark (22) sprints up the court against Washington Mystics guard Karlie Samuelson(44).

When you consider Clark’s collegiate stats, which AI projected before, plus the amount of players in college and overseas who attempt to enter the NBA each season, Clark’s chances of making an NBA team are slim. Even artificial intelligence could not forecast whether she would make it to the NBA.

After a few changes to the command, AI eventually generated Clark’s numbers if she made the NBA squad. She’d average 5 to 8 points, 2 to 4 assists, and 2 rebounds per game. Her shooting splits would be 40 to 45 percent from the field and 35 to 40 percent from three-point range, with her playing 10-20 minutes per game.

Based on her current stats and usage rate in the WNBA, Clark’s best outcome in the NBA is as a role player.

Caitlin Clark’s first season statistics in the WNBA
In a more realistic scenario, the final simulation predicted Clark’s stats during her first season. Clark’s stats after 15 games are as follows: 16.3 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, 6.2 assists per game, and 39 field goal percentage.

AI’s perspective is actually not that far off. Clark should finish the season with an average of 12 to 16 points, 4 to 6 assists, and 3 to 5 rebounds.

Clark would likely face obstacles in making the transition from women’s collegiate basketball to the NBA. Aside from the physical changes and greater level of competitiveness, Clark would have to adjust to being the second or third option on offence, which she has not done throughout her career.

It is unclear if she will continue to be a dominant force in women’s basketball, but one thing is certain: the entire world will be monitoring her every move.

 

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