What we have learnt about Cody Poteet

What we have learnt about Cody Poteet
The depth piece has showed an improved approach in MLB action.

Back in spring training, we discussed Cody Poteet’s potential as a rotation component, filling in for Gerrit Cole when he went on the IL. Luis Gil has stepped up the most, practically mirroring Cole’s predicted performance, but Poteet’s performances since Clarke Schmidt’s injury have also been recognized. After nearly two full seasons of rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery, Poteet has averaged more than five innings each start in his first four starts, with a 2.14 ERA.

Poteet’s four-seam/sinker style, which favors contact over strikeouts, has always resulted in better FIP and xFIPs than his ERA. Indeed, his strikeout percentage has reduced in his four Yankee appearances, as has his walk rate. The key to this, in my opinion, is his 20-point spike in contact beyond the zone—he’s throwing more balls in the strike zone, but the ones outside are getting hit, and those balls don’t usually travel very far.

Consider the gap between this season and 2022. Even though Poteet is throwing the ball in the zone more, around one point higher than in 2022, it is his contact just outside of the zone that is fueling his excellent hard hit rate.

Gil has demonstrated command of the shadow zone this season, albeit he prefers to work up and away from righties, aided by his 98-mph fastball. Poteet’s weaker material forces him to be a little more inventive, shifting the ball east-west rather than north-south.

So that is what Poteet has been doing, and it is consistent with Yankee pitching philosophy. The major question is what we may expect from that approach in the future, given that Poteet is allowing fewer home runs and a.220 BABIP compared to the league average of.288. Weak contact and engineering swings at balls will naturally result in a lower BABIP, therefore we must consider more than just ERA-FIP statistics.

I’m concerned about the decline in strikeouts, especially because Cole’s expected activation means Poteet will go into a long relief role. Soft contact is ideal, but no contact is even better, especially when a reliever enters with men on base. I’m curious whether any of this is integrating his breaking and offspeed stuff more, considering that his curve and sweeper have greater whiff and contact quality than his fastballs, while Poteet’s changeup trails his other offerings in swings and misses.

Poteet may make his final start in this cycle tomorrow, with Cole returning as early as Wednesday. Poteet does have MiLB possibilities if the Yankees want to keep him on a regular rotation schedule, which might be the key to incorporating his secondary skills as well. If he stays with the big league club, the best use is likely to be managing Gil’s workload and ensuring Cole can return to his workhorse form.