Size matters. The degree to which that adage is true is debatable in hockey circles, but the basic fact is that bigger players tend to go up NHL draft boards faster. Players of lesser stature must truly differentiate themselves from the competition in order to be considered for high draft picks, and their path to success is far more difficult than that of those born with unteachable physicality.
But here’s another fact: Sidney Crosby was the last 17-year-old to score 50 goals in a QMJHL season. That is, of course, until Justin Poirier accomplished it this season.
Birthplace: Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, Quebec
Date of birth: September 4, 2006.
Shoot: Right
Position: Right Wing.
Height: 5’8″ Weight: 181 pounds.
Team: Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL).
Poirier, a previous top-five pick for Baie Comeau in the QMHJL draft, demonstrated his goal-scoring ability in his first season, when he scored 28 goals at the age of 16. His 51 goals last season outscored the next top scorer on his team by 11, propelling the Drakkar to a league-best record and a spot in the QMJHL finals. He led the league in playoff goals (18) and points (27).
Poirier is possibly the QMJHL’s purest shot right now. Furthermore, in terms of velocity and accuracy, he’s one of the top shooters in this draft. He shoots lasers, possesses a lightning-quick release, and can fire his blast from almost anywhere, at any time. At the junior level, it is a weapon that lacks a clear answer.
His one-timer is wicked, and he’ll post up in the faceoff circle on power plays, where he scored 11 regular-season goals. His shot is good enough to beat goaltenders straight up, but it becomes much more lethal when any lateral movement prior to the shot causes goaltenders to move. As an individual tool, it is arguably the most professional-ready prospect you can find.
The threat he poses off the rush is not solely based on his shooting. He possesses excellent hockey sense and positioning, reads the play well when exiting his zone, and makes himself accessible in space to receive breakout passes. From there, he possesses the hands and agility to beat opponents, offering him another dimension that keeps him from relying solely on his shot.
Justin Poirier scored a terrible goal to give Baie-Comeau a 3-0 lead over Charlottetown. pic.twitter.com/YivWkWWQJE
Absolutely nasty goal by Justin Poirier to give Baie-Comeau a 3-0 lead over Charlottetown. pic.twitter.com/YivWkWWQJE
— Matt Drake (@DrakeMT) March 30, 2024
— Matt Drake (@DrakeMT), March 30, 2024.
Poirier, a 5’8″ goal scorer, is typically not selected in the first round due to his lack of size. That being said, he weighs a strong 181 pounds and plays a hard game that you wouldn’t imagine unless you’ve seen it firsthand. He can and does bury opponents with larger frames than himself, so I’d be surprised if his size is the factor that hinders his NHL future.
More likely, what is holding him back is that his junior-level attacking style cannot be expected to transition to the professional level. He lacks the excellent edgework and hands that most diminutive NHL scorers possess. His maneuvers are unlikely to open up the lanes he requires in the NHL, so he’ll need to diversify his approach to maximize the impact his shooting and hands can have. His one-timer should translate well, but if he wants to play in the NHL on a regular basis, he’ll need to figure out how to create opportunities against tougher competition.
Mitch Brown and Lassi Alanen
His aforementioned physicality provides some defensive potential, but he cannot and should not be expected to play solely defensively. If you’re considering drafting a player like Poirier, he’ll most likely play an exploitation role with power play minutes. There is a boom or burst nature to his selection, which is likely influencing his rankings significantly. He has Alex DeBrincat potential, but it is a long path to get there, and there is no assurance that it will happen.
However, the range in which he is anticipated to be drafted makes it difficult to use the term “bust.”
Preliminary rankings
Elite Prospects: #44 FC.Hockey: #69.
Hockey Prospect: #84
Dobber Prospects: #61.
Hadi Kalakeche is ranked #75, with McKeen’s at #65.
NHL Central Scouting: #82 (North American Skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic): No. 90
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): No. 55
There could be a team that jumps the gun on Poirier in the second round, but preliminary rankings indicate that he will most likely wait until the third round to hear his name. With your chances of picking future NHL regulars reducing so dramatically by that point, there is a lot of potential value in a player like Poirier. You don’t generally get 50-goal junior scorers in the middle rounds, and that type of upside is particularly appealing given the pick’s lower value.
The Montreal Canadiens can afford to take some chances in the middle rounds, and Poirier is one I would urge them to take. They have picks 70 and 78 in the third round, with a solid probability of drafting him there. You can complain about a lack of size all you want, but once you get past the first round, it is worthwhile to look at players that are missed because they are tiny.
You’re looking for diamonds in the rough with these picks. Sometimes things doesn’t work out, but occasionally you get Lane Hutson.
