Brace for Battle: Missouri Football’s 2024 Season Preview vs. the Buffalo Bulls!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2024 Missouri Football Opponent Previews: Buffalo Bulls
It’s always a good idea to play one of the worst FBS programs on the world.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 02 Buffalo at Wisconsin
Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some inaccuracies in history and present team makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with bad intent since I don’t like you or your team.

Catch up on past 2024 opponent previews!
Murray State

Ah, Buffalo New York. Located on the extreme western edge of New York state, right at the head of the Niagara River tributary point into Lake Erie, the 2nd-largest city in the state of New York (and the 78th-largest city in the US) is largely known for being cold as balls. Of course, others know that the buffalo wing originated in the city that is shown in its name and that Buffalo is home to the oldest urban parks system in the country.

They’re also known for being snakebit in professional football and bad in college football.

You see, despite being chosen as the terminus of the Eerie Canal – and thus being the primary inland port between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic Ocean – the main thing that I knew Buffalo for in the 90s was 1.) the elite running back Thurman Thomas and 2.) losing four straight Super Bowls (watch the Four Falls of Buffalo, it’s fantastic). Despite being the world’s largest grain port in the early 1800s and the second-largest railway hub in the 1900s, their college football team’s claim to fame is that its ‘Bulls’ mascot is far too similar to the NFL’s ‘Bills’ mascot…and has been simply horrible for the most of its history.

How horrible was it? Glad you asked! Dick Offenhamer, Buffalo’s coach from 1955 to 1965, led the team to a 58-37-5 record, winning (and declining) a Tangerine Bowl invitation in 1958.

It’s Dick.
This was their last bowl invitation until 2008.

Offenhamer left after the 1965 season, and Buffalo’s football programme was so terrible over the next five years that it was shut down in 1970. Buffalo elected to field a team again in 1977 in what was then Division III, and the squad went through ups and downs until 1993. At that period, UB management had a renewed desire to bring their football programme back into (then) Division I-A, so they jumped to Division I-AA and had a successful 8-3 season in 1996 before returning to Division I in 1999.

Buffalo’s 8-3 season in 1996 marked the last time it finished above.500 in 12 years.

The Bulls’ transition to Division I was rocky, with two head coaches from 1999 to 2005 winning only 10 games in seven years, including an 0-11 season in 1999.

Which brings us to the “modern era”:

Buffalo’s Historical SP+ Performance
At the end of the 2005 season, Buffalo hired Turner Gill, a former Heisman candidate quarterback at Nebraska, to help turn the programme around. Gill went 5-7 in Year Two and finished tied for first place in the MAC’s East Division. In 2008, Gill led a team with four future NFL players and a fortunate turnover margin to an 8-6 record, the Bulls’ first season above.500 in a dozen years and their first bowl invitation in 50 years. Despite a modest drop in record to 5-7 in 2009, Gill was hired by Kansas and replaced by former Cincinnati Bearcats offensive coordinator Jeffrey Quinn.

Quinn’s time was uneventful but significant, as his dismissal resulted in the hiring of Lance Leipold, one of the best underdog programme architects in the world. Look at the chart above from 2015 to 2020; a little decrease in Year Two as he washed out old players and brought in new ones, a rise in Year Three, a massive jump in Year Four, ending in Buffalo’s first positive SP+ ranking of 5.3 this decade. Leipold’s 37-33 record over six seasons remains one of the greatest in programme history, and his one-loss 2020 season has the highest win percentage of any Buffalo head coach.

Of course, he went to Kansas (where Buffalo coaches are sometimes poached), resulting in Maurice Linguist’s mediocre and brief career. He participated – and won! – a bowl game, but the Bulls’ quality was declining year after year, so he took the first ticket out…which happened to be a DC position at Alabama.

So now we’re in the Pete Lembo era. Lembo has previously enjoyed success in the G5, but it is a completely different environment for G5 clubs, and Buffalo is experiencing a forced hard reset through the transfer portal and graduation.

Whatever Lembo accomplishes, keep in mind that working in Buffalo is a difficult task.

*Why did Buffalo decline one of its few coveted bowl invitations? Check the year, 1958. The Bulls’ main running back, Willie Evans, and backup defensive end, Mike Wilson, were both black. And the Orlando Elks Lodge, the bowl sponsor, believed the colour of their skin was the worst thing on the planet and told Buffalo that they couldn’t play those two guys in their important postseason exhibition game. The school, squad, and Coach Offenhamer gave the Orlando Elks Lodge all the middle fingers they could conjure and stayed home during bowl season.
Let’s see what Buffalo did last year:

2024 Buffalo Schedule Results

Buffalo suffered an unexpected loss to Fordham, a lucky overtime win over Akron, and two overwhelming victories over two of the rare programmes ranked lower than Buffalo in the SP+ rankings. The Bulls’ defence, like that of the majority of the MAC, was competent but continually let down by their unreliable offence, which lost almost every player worth a damn to the portal.

Because of the transfer portal’s ability to quickly build a new team, there are very few “Year Zero” situations in college football anymore – a scenario in which a new coach’s team was so bad the previous year and had such low-quality players on the roster that there’s simply no reason to track what happens in the first year. I’m not suggesting Buffalo is a candidate for a transfer gateway during “Year Zero”… However, given its mediocre portal and recruiting efforts, it’s near.

Coaching Staff

Ball State vs Texas A&M

Pete Lembo – First Year: 0-0 (0-0)
The MAC used to matter, guy. It is the conference where hall of fame coaches will have their first chance to demonstrate their abilities as head coaches of a football team. A place where undermanned and under-resourced teams were extremely imaginative with their offensive strategies. A place that was the first to move their televised games to the middle of the week, putting up such offensive bangers that the College Football Zeitgeist (aka Spencer Hall at Every Day Should Be Saturday) dubbed these weekday MAC cataclysms as “MAC-tion”, a term that is still used, referenced, and branded today.

Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Ara Parseghian, Paul Brown, Nick Saban, Gary Pinkel, Urban Meyer, Mark Dantonio, Brady Hoke, Jerry Kill, Brian Kelly, Butch Jones, Dave Doeren, P.J. Fleck, Matt Campbell, and countless other coaches I know I’m forgetting got their starts with teams in the MAC before going on to excellent careers elsewhere.

And that run actually ceased with Pete Lembo. Not this year, mind you, but in 2016, when Lembo abruptly abandoned his post at Ball State to pursue a special teams coordinator position at Maryland. Lembo’s record wasn’t horrible – 33-29 isn’t terrific but certainly not bad – but after winning 19 games in two years at a school that doesn’t generally accomplish that, Lembo had zero traction on gaining a position elsewhere…so he just quit. This happened to Sean Lewis at Kent State, too: post amazing offensive numbers, win more games than anybody else possible could at one of the toughest schools to win at…no employment offers. Hell, Toledo’s Jason Candle has been the head coach of the Rockets for nine years, won 65 games, won three division titles and a conference championship…and no one wants him.

The MAC looks to no longer be the cradle of coaching anymore, but, instead, a crypt. Coaches assume head roles there to watch their careers hit a dead end and either get fired or hired on as a coordinator elsewhere. It’s a terrible state for a conference that was once incredibly enjoyable and exciting to follow. And Lembo, as Patient Zero of this tragic virus, is returning to the conference that gave him a shot.

I have no idea how he will do. He’s had experience in building up programs at the lower levels of college football and delivers quirky, effective answers to the special teams side. But his crew is sort of boring and there’s probably nothing he can do to get promoted so the desire and energy might be lacking.

But that’s a lot of prognosticating on my end for a guy who’s only been on the job for four months.

Coach Lembo’s Resume
Assistant Staff.

Dave Patenaude – Offensive Coordinator: Coach Patenaude is an intriguing individual, inspired primarily by his extensive experience coaching in the Ivy League. Patenaude was known for being able to get the most out of his players, and he ran some really innovative triple-option-out-of-shotgun settings at Hofstra, Georgetown, and Coastal Carolina. He was teamed with Geoff Collins at Temple before following Collins to Georgia Tech for the failed rebuilding of the triple-option based offence. The rumors are that Collins really limited Patenaude’s offensive effectiveness while at GT (they were trying to get away from the option offense even though that was what Tech’s players did best and what Patenaude knew best), and when Patenaude’s contract wasn’t renewed he was temporarily hired at Old Dominion before stepping down with no reason given. He worked as an analyst at Virginia last year and is now giving the OC position another chance. A lot of the creativity he displayed in the late aughts/early teens when he was a “bright offensive mind” is now mostly rote in a modern college football offence; it’ll be interesting to see if he still has a creative touch or if he resorts to his old stuff that defences are better trained to counter in 2024.

Joe Bowen – Defensive Coordinator: Joe Bowen is a young man who has spent more seasons as a student/graduate assistant than as a position coach, but his destinations have all been with excellent defensive teams. His previous position was as linebackers coach for a Miami (Ohio) team that ranked 12th in SP+ in 2023 and featured linebacking dynamos Ty Wise and Matt Salopek (the latter an All-American!). If he can bring a fraction of Miami’s defensive competence to a Buffalo defence that was ok but glitchy, Lembo will have a great start.

Tyler Hancock, Special Teams Coordinator

Ray Pickering – Running Backs

Caleb Haynes – Wide Receivers

Ron Whitcomb – Tight Ends

Matt Stansfield, Offensive Line

Adam Morris, Defensive Line

Holman Copeland, Cornerbacks

Brian Dougherty, Safeties

Roster Movement

2024 Buffalo Transfer Portal Losses
Any time there is a coaching change, there will be more turnover via the portal, both from “eff the new guy, I ain’t playing for him” and from “we’re doing things differently here and you’re no longer a fit” emotions.

Despite this caveat, Buffalo was hammered heavily in the portal. Starting quarterback from the previous three years? I went to Eastern Michigan, a conference opponent. Running back number two? Off to New Mexico State. #1 tight end, best offensive lineman, and greatest havoc-maker at safety? All have gone to P4 programmes, on top of attrition from graduation.

But, hey, that’s okay as long as you bring in some comparable skill to fill the gaps, right? Right?????

2024 Buffalo Transfer Portal Additions

Woo, dude. A quarterback with two starts to his name, a P4 wide receiver with one grab in 2023, an Ivy League receiver, and ‘Bama’s backup walk-on kicker. They did, however, add a large number of defensive linemen who had little or no experience last year, in an effort to bring them in young and develop them in the programme. But it’s a slew of unknown players and Ivy Leaguers who are expected to buoy and strengthen Lembo’s inaugural Buffalo programme. That is a hefty ask.

The 2024 Buffalo High School Recruiting Class

And Lembo’s recovered first recruiting class does not appear to have many immediate impact additions, either. They do recruit two JUCO offensive lineman to plug up the glaring gaps on the line but a low 3-star running back and safety are the gems of the 110th-ranked class in the nation and 11th-ranked (out of 12) class of the MAC. Obviously, any of these men could have an impact in Year One (and should have plenty of opportunities to do so), but when you recruit like a MAC club, the majority of your acquisitions will be players who will be good several years down the road.

Oh, they did recruit a player from the NFL Academy in London, England. That’s awesome.

Offence
What can you say about the 125th-best offence in the nation last year? Especially one that loses the majority of its contributors and still ranks as the ninth-worst offence in 2023?

The Bulls were decently good at scoring touchdowns when they got into the red zone…but don’t ask how often they did! Also, the offensive line was in the middle of the pack in pass protection and did not miss any blocks. That’s something!

However, when your starting quarterback, top two running backs, top six receiving targets, and two leading offensive lineman are gone, it makes little difference what you did last year.

Bad news: practically everyone has left! Good news: they sucked, and it probably couldn’t be any worse!

Quarterback

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Nov. 21 Eastern Michigan at Buffalo

C.J. Ogbonna Statistics

Missouri fans have witnessed C.J. Ogbonna previously closed out SEMO’s visit to Mizzou in 2021. He spent another year there before moving to Buffalo last year. C.J. was primarily a backup option last year, with the recently departed Cole Snyder taking the majority of the snaps. However, considering the majority of the quarterbacks on the roster are younger than their third year and/or have not played for an FBS team, it appears that C.J. is expected to be the primary choice for the starting job in ’24, having thrown only 21 passes previous season.

Running backs

College football: September 30 Buffalo at Akron.

Buffalo’s Returning Running Back Stats

Buffalo’s running game was its relative strength, ranked 77th nationally. However, the top two rushing backs have either graduated or transferred, as has the third leading rusher, quarterback Cole Snyder, leaving the most experienced player, Jacqez Barksdale, who had 52 rushes and 248 yards last year.

Furthermore, they add no portal backs and only one 3-star via high school. Yikes.

Receivers

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Nov. 21 Eastern Michigan at Buffalo

Buffalo Returning Receiving Statistics
Buffalo’s passing offence was 121st in the country after they lost their top six receiving targets: four receivers and two running backs. Again, you may see that as either the final step to rock bottom or a bunch of nothing because they stunk so horribly anyway. Regardless, Lembo addressed the issue by signing an experienced Ivy League wide receiver and a youthful backup receiver from Boston College. They also signed four tall receivers from the high school ranks as potential candidates to fill out the depth chart as well.

Offensive Line

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 02 Buffalo at Wisconsin

Buffalo’s Returning Offensive Line Statistics

The Bulls’ starters at right tackle and guard return, as do the reserves at left guard and centre. The two JUCO offensive linemen will be expected to jump in right away, while the three high school tackles will most likely be inexperienced on the field, even with a hard reset and depth required.

Defence

Buffalo’s defence was consistently strong until 2023, and it was the only unit capable of keeping the Bulls in games. They were effective at halting efficiency plays and keeping offences out of the end zone when they had scoring opportunities. They even placed 27th against the run! The problem was that their pass defence was ranked 88th, and they were the worst at allowing explosive plays on the ground.

It’s a strange pairing: a poor passing defence allowed relatively few huge plays, and a strong run defence allowed all big plays possible. The red zone defence was good, the scoring defence was good, and the third-down defence was good…it was just those pesky huge plays.

Buffalo will look to four new faces to replace their lost top three defensive lineman and a starting safety, while the linebackers will look to replace one starter with some of their current backups.

The Bulls really need some chaos; they weren’t the greatest at creating it last year, and their only good havoc creators have graduated.

2024 Buffalo’s Returning Defensive Stats
So, what does this all mean?

2024 Buffalo Schedule
Buffalo will be horrible in 2024. I don’t think they can get past it. The good news is that they play in the MAC, and practically all of their opponents are equally poor.

Even expected MAC contenders Northern Illinois and Toledo are nearly a touchdown worse than the average college football team, but the majority of their opponents rank in the 120 area of SP+, which happens to be quite close to Buffalo’s projection.

Missouri should absolutely crush this team. That’s not Eli Drinkwitz’s style, though; despite all the swagger and high-level recruitment, Drinkwitz teams typically score 30ish points and then halt, even against overwhelmed competition.

However, regardless of the score, this one should not be close. And Mizzou should stroll to a relatively stress-free win.

If not, we’ll deal with it when the time comes.