Is it time for Davis Schneider to take over as leadoff hitter?
Originally posted on Bluejaysnation | By Thomas Hall | Last updated: 5/14/24
George Springer has been the Toronto Blue Jays’ go-to leadoff bat for the previous four seasons, including 2024, after signing in free agency in 2021. But is it time to make a permanent switch for a club eager for more runs, particularly at the top of the batting order?
The leadoff position and Springer have spent a lot of time together since ’21. Of his 1,769 plate appearances as a Blue Jay, 1,555 have been as the batting order’s setter. No other player, past or present, has come close to him in that period, with former Blue Jay Marcus Semien next at 403.
Of course, Springer has continued to hit first since his time with the Houston Astros, where he was a sparkplug in the No. 1 hole for the majority of his seven seasons with the team. There, he consistently turned the game in the first inning with a single swing, and he has done the same for Toronto, albeit less frequently. This has resulted in 57 career leadoff home runs, trailing just Rickey Henderson’s 81 for the most in history.
However, as impressive as Springer’s resume as one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball history is, his offensive productivity has dropped sharply and dramatically since the start of last season.
From 2019 to 2022, the right-handed-hitting outfielder hit.274/.360/.536 with a 143 wRC+ in 384 games for the Astros and Blue Jays combined. He hit 21 home runs in ’23, his ninth consecutive season with at least 20 home runs (excluding 2020). Despite playing 154 games, he was only 4% over league average in wRC+ and had career lows in OBP (.327), SLG (.405), and wOBA (.320), the second-highest total of his career.
As disappointing as last year was, the four-time All-Star is off to a terrible start this season, hitting only.200/.273/.290 with three home runs and a dreadful 66 wRC+ in 37 games. And he hasn’t provided any cause to be optimistic about his underlying stats, which are below the 50th percentile in practically every quality-of-contact indicator, including xSLG (.378), xwOBA (.308), average exit velocity (87.3 m.p.h.), hard-hit rate (35.9 percent), and barrel rate (6.0%).
Springer has made all but one of his 161 plate appearances as Toronto’s leadoff hitter this season. Given that he has 87 percent of the total reps at that position, it should be no surprise that this team’s offensive production at the top of the lineup ranks last in the majors.
| TOR’s Leadoff Hitters | MLB Rank | |
| AVG | .210 | 24th |
| OBP | .272 | 30th |
| SLG | .317 | 27th |
| wOBA | .265 | 28th |
| wRC+ | 71 | 28th |
This lack of success would probably not be as prominent — at least so far — if the Blue Jays were stacking up victories behind their two franchise mainstays, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, because runs and series victories have recently been few, the time for waiting for Springer to get going has passed — or should.
Much of Toronto’s fan base has been calling for a change in the leadoff spot for weeks, if not months, dating back to last season. Those screams were recently answered when Springer missed time due to sickness, propelling Davis Schneider up the rankings with a well-deserved promotion.
Schneider has gone 0-for-8 with three strikeouts in two of his three games leading off. However, the middle game of the three was one in which he imposed his will on the Minnesota Twins on Saturday.
At a time when the Blue Jays were behind 7-1, last year’s rookie phenom was a main source of offense, earning his first three-hit performance of 2024 and fourth of his young career. He accounted for one-third of the team’s ten runs, including a solo blast in the fifth inning that sparked a much-needed comeback.
Davis Schneider's 4th homer of the season 💪 pic.twitter.com/2BG9hWqolB
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 11, 2024
The Blue Jays moved Schneider to fifth in Sunday’s finale against the Twins, with Springer back in the lineup, but the fading 34-year-old outfielder went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. His bat was not the only one that failed; Bailey Ober and Minnesota’s bullpen limited this lineup to only two hits.
At the same time, it’s becoming evident that Toronto needs to give someone other than Springer a lengthy run in the leadoff spot, and Schneider may be the best replacement on the roster.
Gone are the days when every leadoff bat had to have a high-speed, high-contact profile. Most teams now put their most productive hitter at the top of the lineup, and Schneider has been that for Toronto this season.
Of the eight Blue Jays batters with at least 100 plate appearances, the 25-year-old leads the team in SLG (.474), wOBA (.370), wRC+ (143), and offensive WAR (5.2), following only Guerrero (.376) in OBP by just.010 points.
Schneider’s 73.5 percent contact percentage ranks sixth among that group, but it’s up about 10% from last season’s figure of 64.9 percent. Furthermore, his plate discipline has been flawless, with his 11.6 percent walk rate ranking third on the club and in the 77th percentile.
His bat still has a lot of swing and miss, as his strikeout (26.8 percent) and whiff rates (29.6 percent) are in the 22nd and 25th percentiles, respectively. However, each of those stats has improved in 2024, with his strikeout rate dropping over 4% and his whiff rate falling nearly 8%.
Given his 94th percentile pursuit rate of 19.7 percent, the majority of his swings and misses have occurred in the strike zone.
Schneider is not only making good swing decisions, but he is also punishing pitchers with his barrel, as he entered Monday’s series opener against the Baltimore Orioles with baseball’s second-highest barrel rate (21 percent), trailing only Shohei Ohtani (23.6 percent).
There are few, if any, more rational alternatives to retaining Schneider in the leadoff spot moving forward. The only other feasible candidate could be Justin Turner. However, he is currently on a 1-for-22 streak over his last five games and would be best suited to stay in the center of the lineup, where he will have substantially more run-scoring possibilities.
Having Schneider lead off on a regular basis will undoubtedly drive opposing teams to focus on his skills and shortcomings even more than they currently do, as we’ve seen in recent weeks. Another important factor to consider is whether he maintains mental and philosophical consistency after being a larger focus of opponents’ game plans.
Most importantly, removing Springer from the leadoff spot would be a decision to build the best possible lineup, rather than hoping that moving down the order will enhance his bat. The red flags that plagued him early on, like as his poor quality-of-contact metrics and falling bat speed, are likely to stay regardless of where he hits.
It only reflects the unpleasant reality of the situation. Father Time is undefeated, and Springer’s precipitous slide is most certainly just the beginning. He should rebound from his somewhat slow start. However, with a budding star like Schneider on the rise, the Blue Jays’ bounce-back will most likely come from the bottom half of their lineup.
