MLB home run predictions for 4/29: Braves sluggers to feast on M’s pitching
By Jack Dougherty.
It’s a new week for us in home run props, and we want to get started well. Let’s look at our three favorite HR bets for Monday’s MLB slate.
Alec Bohm (+500 DraftKings) plays for the Phillies against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Alec Bohm is definitely crushing the baseball right now. Over the last 15 days, the Philadelphia Phillies third baseman has a.510 batting average,.898 slugging percentage, and 1.445 OPS, all of which are the greatest records in the MLB. Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has the 13th-highest fly ball rate and the 14th-highest predicted slugging % among qualified pitchers, making this an ideal matchup for Bohm to continue his hot streak.
Marcell Ozuna (+400 FanDuel) will play for the Atlanta Braves against the Seattle Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET.
On Monday, we’re looking at fading Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller for home run props. Miller allows the third-highest barrel rate, the third-highest fly ball rate, and the 12th-highest average exit velocity among qualified pitchers this season. Now he faces the league’s most dangerous power-hitting lineup, the Atlanta Braves. Let’s start with Marcell Ozuna, who is batting.328 and slugging.701 against right-handed pitching this season. Ozuna has the team’s greatest barrel rate this season, so this is an ideal matchup for him to destroy another one.
The Braves’ Travis d’Arnaud (+600 FD) will face the Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET.
We’re not done with the Braves quite yet. Travis d’Arnaud is Atlanta’s most productive hitter, leading the team in batting average (.379), slugging percentage (1.000), and home runs (5) over the last 15 days. Despite d’Arnaud’s recent power explosion, six Braves batters are valued lower than him on Monday night’s home run odds board. We will gladly accept the discount.
