Howie Roseman plans to make at least one trade during the draft. For whom? We do not yet know. For what? We can make accurate estimates. Looking back at previous deals, the price to go to most places is fairly fixed, but others have resulted in a variety of outcomes.
They presently have 22, 50, 53, 120, 161, 171, 172, and 210, with a first, two second, a fourth, three fifths, and a sixth.
The huge and thrilling move would be to move up in the first round. The Eagles will not or be unable to move up before the 12th pick, thus we will look in the 12-19 range.
22nd overall, trade up.
2018 – 22, 65 for 16, 154
2021 – 23, 66, 86 for 14, 143
That is it. Those are the only instances in which a team in its teens has traded back to the early 1920s. Teams that draft there prefer not to return to that range. They either trade back into the teens (7 times since 2011) or into the late 20s/early 30s, gaining significant draft value (3 times).
If the Eagles move up into the early teens, they will lose one of their two second-round picks, but they will receive a fifth-round pick in return. In the previous three drafts, 7 of 16 non-QB deals in the first round resulted in the team sliding back and giving up a second pick, ranging from the mid fourth to early fifth round. Because they’d be giving up a pick in the 50s rather than the 60s, the Eagles would be justified in asking for an early fourth.
22nd overall, trade back.
2011 – 21 for 27, 70
2012 – 21 for 27, 93
From 2013 to 22, 2015, he ranked seventh with 30, 92, and 198.
2014 – 20 for 27, 91
2018 – 22, 215 for 25, 125
2019 – 21 for 30, 114, 118
2019 – 22 for 25, 127, 197
2022 – 21 for 29, 94, 121
While getting up may be challenging, moving back is rather simple. If that’s the case, the Eagles should pick up a late third or early fourth to move down 10 or fewer slots. If they move back, I expect them to move up in the third or fourth round based on either the pick they add or 120.
The Bills and Chiefs are two teams that readily come to mind as potential trade up candidates for the Eagles. Both teams sorely need a wide receiver, particularly the Bills. Buffalo’s current top wide receiver is Khalil Shakir? How about Curtis Samuel? How about Mack Hollins? No matter who it is, they do not have one. Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ lone good wide receiver, may be suspended; even if not, he is their only good wide receiver. However, the Bills do not have enough draft picks to make this work without giving up a 2025 pick; they draft at 28, 60, and 128. The Chiefs have 95 and 131, and trading up in the first round isn’t unusual for them; in 2022, they traded 29, 94, and 121 for 21.
50th, 53rd overall – trade up.
2014 – 54, 122 for 42
2015 – 51, 116, 195 for 43, 229
2016 – 49, 117 for 41
2018 – 51, 117 for 43
2021 – 48, 121 for 43, 230
2023 – 48, 159 for 45
This one is simple. If the Eagles want to move into the 40s, they must give up 120. Perhaps they can pick up a seventh-rounder.
50th, 53rd overall – Tradeback
If they go up from 22 or 50, they will most likely trade back from 53. Even if they don’t climb higher than 53, someone usually always wants to trade into the early 50s.
2011 – 53 for 62, 127
2012 – 51 for 59, 123
2013 – 55 for 61, 173
2014 – 50 for 57, 125
2016 – 48 for 57, 125, 248
2016 – 49 for 56, 124
2016 – 50 for 52, 195
2018 – 49 for 52, 169
2018 – 51 for 105, 2019 second.
2020 – 49 for 59, 101
2021 – 52, 113 for 59, 89
2022 – 50 for 54, 158
A second pick in the 120s does not shift the needle much because they already have pick 120. But it would provide them draft picks, allowing them to move up from 120.
120 – Trade up with current picks.
It’s a long way from 53 to 120, so going up here makes sense, especially if they add a fourth or fifth in an early deal.
2012 – 119, 193 for 109
2014 – 123, 199 for 111
2015 – 124, 161, 242 for 102
2016 – 117, 206 for 113
2017 – 117, 197 for 112
2019 – 117, 186 for 111
2019 – 120, 204 for 114
2020 – 121, 172 for 109
2021 – 126, 166, 232 for 109
2023 – 120, 184 for 112
These are unimpressive. Giving up 171 or 172 to climb up 10-15 slots has doubtful worth. While trading back adds value, trading up benefits a certain player, and trading up in the fourth round has largely been a waste of time. Roy Helu, Alameda Ta’amu, Russell Bodine, Nick Kwiatkoski, Eddie Jackson, Kendall Sheffield, Dru Samia, John Simpson, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Chad Ryland were the players taken with the picks traded up above.
120 – Trade up with additional picks
2021 – 117, 121 for 88
2023 – 122, 139, 168 for 96
There isn’t much to work with here, but packaging 120 and a fourth-round pick gained in a trade down from the 50s is enough to propel you into the late 80s or mid 90s if a team is willing to trade, which they typically are not.
161, 171, 172: Trade up.
When choice 161 is on the clock, the Eagles are unlikely to have that pick, along with 171 and 172. But, if they do, what can a team get in the late fifths?
2016 – 152, 2017 5th for 120.
2017 – 143, 161 for 121
2022 – 165, 169 for 126
The Eagles currently have 120, so there is no reason to trade up to near there unless they give up 120 in an earlier deal.
161, 171, 172 – tradeback
2011 – 163 for 174, 231
2017 – 155 for 164, 214
2017 – 160, 224 for 181, 188
2017 – 172 for 175, 238
2018 – 157 for 167, 225
2018 – 160 for 183, 217
2019 – 159 for 162, 239
2021 – 170 for 174, 233
2023 – 171 for 175, 252
This draft has only 58 underclassmen, down from 82 in 2023 and 73 in 2022, indicating that it is “missing” a full round of underclassmen. As a result, the draft lacks depth. But what difference does it make if you move back five spots? Pick get a seventh for essentially free.
