This is an opinion column.
Many folks are confused about Alabama basketball as they fill out their brackets this week, and I can’t blame them.
After all, look at how this team has performed recently. Alabama has lost four of its last six games entering the NCAA Tournament, has slipped around six spots in adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom, has a defensive efficiency rating outside the top-100, and hasn’t been shooting well of late.
In all honesty, it seems like a recipe for an early NCAA Tournament exit. But I’ll tell you why I believe the contrary is true. No, I don’t think Alabama will win the national title, but I believe the Crimson Tide will win two games this weekend and advance to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons.
First and foremost, I do not believe Alabama is currently playing at the Sweet 16 level. Nobody with working eyes should. For the past month, the team has shown disinterested in playing defense, and due to a slew of injuries, it has had to play starters far too many minutes, leaving them fatigued on the floor in multiple games.
This team needs rest and confidence. And the way Alabama’s NCAA Tournament bracket is set out, it has a chance to get some of both.
For starters, Alabama doesn’t have to play until Friday, and losing on Friday night in the SEC Tournament may be a blessing in disguise. That’s a whole week between games, with only one game across nearly two weeks.
With Latrell Wrightsell only returning from a head injury and Rylan Griffen still nursing a calf strain, the extra time between games will be critical in getting the team’s legs back underneath them.
“I enjoy how we don’t have to play until Friday. I believe we get our legs under us a little more. Obviously, we wanted to win the SEC Tournament, but it could have been a gift in disguise to have an NCAA Tournament run to have our legs recovered and not play until Friday,” Oats said. “We haven’t had our whole roster of players on no-minute limitations since the Texas A&M game, when we were playing well. So I believe this Friday will be the first day we’ve had everyone healthy and ready to go since the A&M game.”
So, getting rested and healthy? Check. That should be a tremendous relief for Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada, who have had to play incredible amounts of minutes over the last month due to different backcourt injuries. The second side of the equation is confidence, and Alabama appears to have drawn the ideal matchup to enhance its confidence early in the tournament.
Yes, the Spokane placing is terrible for supporters, but as a 4-seed, the Crimson Tide faces 13-seed Charleston in the first round.
Many individuals are obsessed with Charleston. The CAA champs have won 12 straight basketball games and are a relatively potent offensive club for a mid-major. Given Alabama’s terrible defensive performance this season, this may raise some concern.
But the metric I’m focusing on here is Charleston’ defense. According to KenPom, the Cougars have the fifth-worst defensive efficiency among all teams, ranking 176th overall. You want to discuss a horrible combination? The No. 176 defense versus the No. 2 offense is exactly that.
Alabama has shot the ball exceedingly poorly in the final month of the season. Over the previous ten games, the Crimson Tide has shot approximately 33 percent from deep, down from 38 percent in the first 20 games of the season.
If there’s one thing this squad needs to develop confidence, it’s to see a few shots go in, and this matchup against one of the poorest defenses in the NCAA Tournament field has the potential to provide more than a few.
Just look at Alabama’s record against mid-majors this season. Alabama scored 105 points against Morehead State, who made the NCAA Tournament, and shot more over 40% of its three-pointers. Alabama scored 102 points and made more than half of their threes against Indiana State, a very solid mid-major team that missed the tournament but was on the brink.
Alabama has scored at least 89 points against each of its mid-major opponents this season. Alabama scored 100 points in five of the seven games, and the team shot at least 40 percent from three.
With rested legs and an inferior defense in front of them, the Crimson Tide has a perfect opportunity to rekindle its attack and get going. But how about the defense?
Normally, Oats says to focus on defense and let the offense take care of itself, but that hasn’t worked with this squad. In reality, it has been just the contrary. This team’s problem has been that they only guard hard when shots are coming in, and when things don’t go their way, that effort has a bad impact on the defensive end.
If Alabama eventually gets some shots in against a lesser team, there could be a significant increase in defensive effort. If that happens, Charleston is in trouble, and the Crimson Tide should comfortably advance to the second round.
The second round is very interesting. Alabama may face either 12-seed Grand Canyon, a mid-major that has won 14 straight games, or 5-seed Saint Mary’s, a methodical, slow-paced squad that focuses heavily on defense and rebounding.
For this round, I’m focusing less on how Alabama compares to these teams and more on how difficult it is to prepare for this Crimson Tide team in only one day.
Alabama has advanced to the Round of 32 twice under Oats, once against Maryland in 2021 and again in 2023. Alabama won 96-77 in 2021 and 73-51 in 2023.
With an offensive system as powerful and fast-paced as this one, it’s practically impossible to reproduce in practice, and even more difficult to prepare for after an NCAA Tournament game on a one-day scout.
“That’s why I think they’re a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, despite their defensive struggles,” ESPN college basketball analyst Seth Greenberg said. “You can’t prepare for them on the second night in 36 hours and imitate what they do on film. “You can’t get a feel for that.”
So, let’s suppose Alabama becomes rested and healthy over the course of the week, sees some shots fall against a poor defense in the first round, and now that it’s gained confidence, has to face a team with just one day to prepare for one of the top attacks in the nation.
That sounds like a fairly nice situation, which is why I’m predicting Alabama to advance out of Spokane and return to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons.
