The top choice in the NFL draft this April will likely go to a quarterback for the Chicago Bears, but if they decide to trade it, they might still end up with one of the game’s best players.
According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the Minnesota Vikings are looking for a franchise quarterback and believe that using 2022 All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson as a trade chip is the best way to get one.
According to The Viking Age’s X account on Monday, February 19, Florio stated, “[The Vikings] want, I believe, a franchise quarterback and trading Justin Jefferson could be the key toward getting the return to move up [in the draft], if that’s what they want to do.”
The Bears would have selections at No. 9 and No. 11 to address holes on the offensive and defensive lines if Chicago chooses to stick with Justin Fields at quarterback. In exchange for Jefferson and Minnesota’s No. 11 overall selection, the team would have a receiver. To consummate a deal, the Vikings would likely also need to forfeit their 2025 first-round pick or provide a package of selections of comparable worth.
In October 2023, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell said that Jefferson’s trade value was at least two first-round picks.
“I don’t think Jefferson would land three first-round picks in a trade, but if they decided to rebuild from the ground up and trade him, the Vikings probably could grab two first-round picks and a mid-round pick or a starting-caliber veteran,” Barnwell wrote. However, he added that he wouldn’t support such a plan.
Still, the calculations alter when dealing with Jefferson gives the Vikings the chance to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams, who in the seven years since Mahomes turned pro has garnered more comparisons to three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs than any other prosp
ect.
On February 10, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network stated that Chicago would need to make a “historic haul” in order to drop out of the #1 pick in the draft. In exchange for the right to choose first last year, the Bears received the Nos. 9 and 61 overall selections from the Panthers in 2023, as well as the team’s first-round pick in 2024 (which ended up being No. 1 overall), a 2025 second-round pick, and wideout DJ Moore.
In other words, Moore was the top pick in 2023, and the Bears received two firsts, two seconds, and Moore. Given that he is worth two firsts and a mid-round (according to Barnwell) in addition to two additional firsts from Minnesota (2024, 2025), Jefferson feels that he is roughly worth the “historic” value that Rapoport mentioned prior to the Super Bowl.
The fact that Jefferson is going to get paid is the second problem.
Moore’s three-year, $62 million deal, which expires in 2025, was inherited by the Bears. Conversely, Jefferson’s rookie contract has a $19.7 million fifth-year team option. It expires in March of the next year, at which point he will become a free agent.
In exchange for the receiver, the Bears would also have to give up the right to tag Jefferson with the franchise tag and retain him through 2025. But if Chicago isn’t sure it can sign Jefferson for a long time, there’s no way the team will move forward with a trade including him.
Over a new four-year contract, Spotrac forecasts Jefferson’s market worth to be 29.3 million. But when well, he has been the greatest wide receiver in football history, setting numerous records in his first three seasons before making the Pro Bowl each time. Therefore, as soon as Jefferson gets to the bargaining table, he has a decent chance of breaking records as well.
All of which means that the soon-to-be 25-year-old ought to fetch significantly more than the market value estimated by Spotrac.
Tyreek Hill received $30 million a year, the largest contract ever given to an NFL receiver, when he signed an extension with the Miami Dolphins a few offseasons ago. At approximately the same time, wideout Davante Adams agreed to a five-year contract worth $140 million with the Las Vegas Raiders, the highest sum for a wideout in league history.
Over the course of a five-year contract, Jefferson will likely strive for and receive more than $30 million yearly. The Bears’ obligation to give him that sum of money makes a trade package with the Vikings of Jefferson and at least two other teams seem reasonable.
