How can one defeat a squad such as Red Bull? This season, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Aston Martin must all find a solution to that question if Formula One is to bring some enthusiasm back to the championship following Max Verstappen’s two commanding triumphs.
In 2023, Red Bull won 21 of 22 races, and under Verstappen’s leadership, the all-conquering RB19 hardly ever seemed in danger. The current set of technical regulations, which were implemented in 2022 and will remain in effect until the end of 2025, seems to belong to Red Bull, just as the previous ones, which date back to 2014, belonged to Mercedes and the early 2000s, to Ferrari, based on the outcomes of the previous two seasons.
However, there remains optimism for Red Bull’s opponents. Although the reigning champions increased their lead from 2022 to 2023, the rest of the field began to gather behind them, and there is speculation that stable regulations from 2023 to 2024 will allow the leading edge of that group to engulf Red Bull.
It may sound like wishful thinking considering that Red Bull moved its focus from 2023 to 2024 very early in its campaign last season in order to focus on another significant step this year, but some rival engineers feel the law of diminishing returns may apply to Red Bull’s success. If they are correct, development of this year’s RB20 may stagnate while others behind are still making significant gains.
Speaking at the end of the 2023 season, Mercedes team leader Toto Wolff compared catching Red Bull in 2024 to conquering Mount Everest. While the expressive language was obviously intended to emphasize the hardship his team faces, the success percentage for ascending the world’s tallest mountain has remained around 60% for the past two decades. Simply put, with proper preparation and favorable conditions, it is possible.
Below, we look at Red Bull’s four closest opponents and why each is optimistic about the next season.
Mercedes
Mercedes, once the most dominant team in Formula One, has been knocked off its perch after the adoption of new technical regulations in 2022.
The rules, which were intended to stimulate thrilling racing, placed a greater emphasis on creating downforce by using air flowing beneath the car.
The aerodynamic interaction between the car’s floor and the track surface, which is frequently measured in tens of millimetres, has proven more variable than most engineers anticipated and more difficult to correctly duplicate in simulations. Mercedes’ initial car idea for 2022 promised tremendous performance at low ride heights when tested in the wind tunnel, but when the team attempted to access that downforce on track, it experienced unmanageable aerodynamic instability, resulting in the car bouncing at high speeds.
Mercedes was compelled to drive the car further away from the ground and focus its development on increasing downforce at greater ride heights, which is much more difficult to perform. Some results toward the end of 2022 convinced the team that it should continue to focus on developing downforce at greater ride heights, despite the inherent engineering challenge, thus it stuck with its current car idea for another year. The team met its goals throughout the winter, but when it arrived at the first test of 2023, it was evident that its competitors, particularly Red Bull, had moved the goalposts by finding even more performance and stability at lower ride heights.
