Distinguished analyst: with better defense, Alabama can win the NCAA tournament
Alabama’s season ended last spring with a loss in the Sweet 16, despite the team having all the excitement going into the NCAA tournament.
This year’s expectations were lower, particularly following a difficult beginning, but one basketball analyst believes the Tide are exactly where they should be.
During his appearance on “The Next Round” on Thursday, ESPN’s Jay Bilas lavished accolades on Alabama. or, more precisely, the potential of the team.
As Bilas noted, the Crimson Tide have a very good offense (KenPom ranks them as the top team in the country for offensive efficiency) and a middling defense (ranked 72nd).
Why then does Bilas rank so highly on this one-dimensional team? They have room to get better.
“What the analytics show is the work of a team. It doesn’t demonstrate the potential of a group,” Bilas claimed.
In this instance, Bilas makes the point that Alabama doesn’t need to be as good defensively as groups like Houston or Auburn, which are both ranked in the top five by KenPom. However, if the Crimson Tide can strengthen their defense, their offense will be strong enough to take them far into the tournament.
“They’re not going to reach that level defensively, but if they trend toward it and are rising as they get to the postseason, they can win this thing,” Bilas said. “They’re good enough.”
Bilas also gave head coach Nate Oats credit for modernizing the program through skillful use of analytics.
Alabama did not play this week, so Oats and the other coaches probably worked to get their players ready for the last stretch of the regular season, particularly on defense.
Alabama is scarcely the top in the SEC in any one defensive metric; their best defensive stat is third in the conference in rebounds. However, that might really be a good thing, giving Alabama space to improve in areas like steals (they rank sixth in the conference) and blocks (they rank eighth).
The Tide might become a frightening opponent for almost anybody if they improve their ability to force mistakes and block shots. After all, Alabama already boasts the top offense in the country. A stronger defense added to that makes you a contender.
