In this piece, I’ll look at the top seven Toronto Maple Leafs right-wingers from this season. Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic created an analytics framework that I’m using to participate in these rankings.
Let me briefly explain how Luszczyszyn’s system works. It was created in 2016 and has expanded to include what he refers to as a “Net Rating.” This rating uses existing data to generate a “all-in-one player value stat” based on each player’s offensive and defensive ratings. (From “NHL Player Cards: Atlantic Division,” Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic, January 28, 2024).
Interestingly, these cards display both a player’s current performance and his projected finish to the season. The data is pro-rated to 82 games, and a forecast is constructed using regression analysis from the previous three seasons. These cards are updated every day after the previous night’s five NHL games.
Analytical Ratings for Maple Leafs’ Seven Right Wingers
You can view the studied data for each Maple Leafs right-winger based on his comprehensive offensive and defensive contributions. Each player’s Net Rating is calculated using their offensive and defensive ratings, on-ice performance, and contract worth.
These analytics-based player values are then shaped into information that makes up each player’s “player card,” which shows “statistically how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats).” It also displays each player’s market value based on their on-ice performance.”
Top-Rated Maple Leafs Right Winger: William Nylander
William Nylander has emerged as the team’s top right winger. He provides outstanding offensive contributions and overall value to the squad. Nylander routinely performs well on the field, thanks to his great goal-scoring abilities and high offensive rating percentage. That makes him an important contributor to the team’s success.
Nylander Notes:
Second-Rated Maple Leafs Right-hander: Mitch Marner
Mitch Marner combines good offensive capabilities with defensive solidity. As a result, he greatly adds to the Maple Leafs’ success. Despite having a somewhat negative surplus value, Marner’s scoring brilliance and overall impact on the team make him an important player on the ice.
Marner Notes:
Tyler Bertuzzi, the Maple Leafs’ third-ranked right-handed player
Tyler Bertuzzi, the Maple Leafs’ right winger, contributes consistently on both offense and defense. Bertuzzi’s solid performance and underlying stats make him a valued member of the club, despite his lack of offensive production compared to Nylander and Marner.
Bertuzzi Notes:
Calle Jarnkrok, a fourth-rated Maple Leafs right-winger, contributes to the team’s offense while also adding value on defense. While not as well-known as Nylander or Marner, Jarnkrok’s balanced play and positive surplus value make him a valued asset on both sides of the ice.
Jarnkrok Notes:
Max Domi, the Maple Leafs’ fifth-ranked right-hander
Max Domi has a negative net rating and weaker offensive and defensive ratings than his colleagues. Despite some offensive contributions, Domi’s negative surplus value and lower percentile rankings indicate room for growth in his overall performance with the Maple Leafs.
Domi’s Notes:
Noah Gregor is the sixth-ranked Maple Leafs right-winger.
Noah Gregor performs poorly on both offense and defense, according to advanced statistics. He has a large negative net rating and is in the lower percentiles. His offensive and defensive contributions are below average when compared to his peers, indicating room for growth in his overall performance.
Gregor’s Notes:
Ryan Reaves is the Maple Leafs’ seventh-ranked right-winger.
Ryan Reaves, unsurprisingly, has a negative net rating, as well as low offensive and defensive ratings. These figures show little contributions from both ends of the ice. While Reaves delivers physicality and grit, his offensive production and overall performance are below average when compared to the rest of the club.
Reaves’ Notes:
The Bottom Line: Comparing the Maple Leafs’ Right Wingers
We may rank the Maple Leafs’ right wingers based on their player cards (from The Athletic), which include current and anticipated net ratings, offensive and defensive ratings, and other important stats.
As previously stated, these rankings are based on submitted player cards and take into account factors such as net ratings, offensive and defensive contributions, percentiles, and market value excess. Interestingly, as The Hockey Writers readers have remarked, these rankings do not always correspond to their evaluations of the player. However, they provide an additional perspective into how advanced analytics would see the player.
They occasionally make me wonder — regardless of whether these rankings are better or lower than my own — what I’m missing when I watch Maple Leaf games.
